Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,
Analytics models have been historically accurate every election (except the last one!)
Moody’s Analytics has predicted that Donald Trump will easily win reelection in 2020, with three models showing that the President will secure at least 289 electoral votes and as many as 351.
Moody’s has been highly accurate in predicting the outcome of elections dating back to 1980. The only time the company was incorrect was in 2016, when it predicted Hillary Clinton would narrowly win.
Three different economic models employed by the analytics agency suggest that Trump’s Electoral College victory is on course to surpass the 304-227 count that secured him victory over ‘Crooked’ Hillary.
The projections are based on economic factors, specifically how confident consumers are with their financial situation.
With unemployment at record lows and the stock market’s overall gains, Moody’s predicts that Trump will cruise to victory.
“Our ‘pocket¬book’ model is the most economically driven of the three. If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report notes.
“This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election.” the report continues.
The Moody’s models have been backtested to 1980 and were correct each time — except in 2016, when they ndicated Clinton would get a narrow victory. The authors attributed “unexpected turnout patterns” in Trump’s favor caused the error and they adjusted for that in the latest projections.
“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.
“It’s about turnout,” Zandi added, noting that if there is a minimum turnout on the Democratic side, then Trump will more easily win.
“Record turnout is vital to a Democratic victory,” the report notes, yet across all three Moody’s models, Trump wins 324-214.
Zandi said the race could come down a few key counties in Pennsylvania, which Trump flipped in 2016 after the state had voted Democrat in the previous five presidential elections.
Specifically, he said Luzerne County, in the northeast part of the state, “is the single-most important county, no kidding, in the entire election.” The longtime Democratic stronghold favored Trump, 51.8% to 46.8% in the election.
Trump doesn’t even have to win the county, but merely needs a strong turnout, Zandi said.
